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Al Gore - An Inconvenient Candidate
By Bill | October 15, 2007 | Email This Post
Congratulations to Al Gore for winning the Nobel Peace Prize. I always feel a bit of home-town pride when an American leads the world in a meaningful debate… even if in this case some scientists with very impressive credentials think he’s completely wrong on the subject.
The question is, what’s next for Gore? For months his name has been bandied about as a possible late-entry candidate in the 2008 Presidential election, and the Nobel prize has sent the political mill into overdrive. It’s a natural speculation, and one to which I can’t believe even Mr. Gore is immune. Who, having seriously aspired to the highest office in the land, will ever be satisfied with having failed to achieve it? That must be particularly true of someone in the unique position of having hard numbers that show he was, in fact, the choice of the majority of Americans, but who was denied the job by the vagaries of the Electoral College?
There’s no doubt Gore could mount a serious run, although many Democratic party insiders hope he does not. A Gore candidacy would place them in the awkward position of having spent their endorsements - not to mention money - on other office-seekers; they would then be forced to choose between 1) withdrawing, or at least watering down, their already announced support, or 2) actively working to quash Gore’s campaign, lest their expensive efforts to garner favor with the eventual President come to naught. An awkward situation all around when it comes time to send out the White House Christmas cards.
My guess is that Gore will not run. For one, reports are that he already views Hillary Clinton as an unstoppable candidate (and here I pit my feeble political wisdom against that of the estimable former Senator from Tennessee: I say that she is beatable.) If that is Gore’s view, however, why on earth would he risk his position as global statesman on what could grow to be the biggest issue of the next century by knowingly banging his head into a political brick wall? Answer: he won’t. Al Gore, if he plays his cards right, can spend the next years becoming to global warming what Jimmy Carter - everyone’s favorite ex-President - has become to fair elections. In other words, he would be in a downright enviable position for someone with such an easily palatable casus belli.
But from a strictly practical political viewpoint, consider this: Gore has, at most, one serious Presidential run left in his career; he would be foolish to squander it here. If the Republicans were to win in 2008, Gore sets up admirably for a run in 2012; given the worst case for him, a Democratic victory and a second term, he would still be in fine shape to run in 2016, at a relatively spry age of 68 (current candidate John McCain is 72, after all) and his candidacy would have the added momentum of another eight years to systematically run-without-declaring. The old sports adage that every town’s favorite player is the backup quarterback is no less true in the political world.
And, speaking of McCain, he has it exactly right when he issued his challenge to Gore to use his newfound moral authority on the subject of global warming to effect change in our approach to energy. McCain’s specific goal is that of expanding the use of nuclear power, but the underlying point is this: it’s all very well to raise consciousness and say the right things, but the Nobel Prize places Gore in a position from which he can actually make things happen. Of course, there is some risk in this for Gore should he indeed have his mind on a future run for President. In action there is danger; he could easily spend his time flying around the globe, basking in applause and making speeches (prominently featuring comments about the future of the world’s children, no doubt) without doing anything for which he could later be criticized. But to endorse and bring about a particular course of action - whether that’s nuclear power or building wind farms off the coast or offering a practical economic basis for the biggest chestnut of all, the inevitable switch to hydrogen - will require that Mr. Gore be willing to place himself back in the fray.
Where he belongs.
Topics: Al Gore |