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Predicting The Iowa Caucus
By Bill | January 2, 2008 | Email This Post
All right sports fans, we’re down to it. The Iowa caucus is tomorrow, and we’ll finally get our first meaningful measure of how the race is shaping up, as opposed to the questionable polls and wild opinions we’ve had up until now. Tomorrow isn’t the whole story, of course; New Hampshire will speak next, and several of the candidates have enough money and/or support elsewhere to draw the campaign out should they choose to do so.
Some thoughts:
Republicans:
Rudy Giuliani: Rudy expects to finish well out of the top, and isn’t concerned a bit. His strategy is not to waste his energy on the early states, but concentrate on winning high-population, high value ones in a few weeks. This is contrary to conventional wisdom, which says you have to get out of the gate running, but makes sense in that the only real political reason to care about Iowa is to build momentum. Should his strategy succeed, it will change Presidential elections forever.
Duncan Hunter: Simply doesn’t have a chance.
Mike Huckabee: He already has a moral in Iowa, regardless of where he finishes. This is a man who several months ago went from nonfactor to potential VP candidate, and now people are whispering the “frontrunner” word. Too bad moral victories aren’t enough in politics; it’s time for Huckabee supporters to put up. If he doesn’t finish in the top two, and probably the top one, he’s back to VP fodder.
John McCain: is concentrating his efforts on New Hampshire, so if he makes any noise at all here it will just be icing on the cake. Still, he may do better than he expects.
Ron Paul: The obvious wild card in all of this. It’s time to find out if his Internet support translates to votes. I think it will, at least here… Iowans have a contrarian streak, and Paul plays right into that.
Mitt Romney: Was the frontrunner in Iowa up until recently, and when his position was threatened his composure cracked and he went on the attack against Huckabee. I don’t think it will be enough and it may even backfire, but he’s got enough money and people on the ground that he could come in first.
Fred Thompson: Fred’s work ethic hasn’t been outstanding, but he has focused on Iowa. Will it be enough? No.
Democrats:
Joe Biden: Joe may be the best qualified candidate in the race. But that doesn’t win a Caucus. My bet is he’ll finish far behind the front of the pack.
Hillary Clinton: Can survive an Iowa loss, but it will be a huge embarrassment for her.
John Edwards: This is it for Edwards. He needs to win Iowa, period. He won’t.
Barack Obama: Iowa will be an interesting test for Obama and his campaign of hope and change. Have the voters bought it? I think they might have.
Kucinich, Dodd, and Gravel: None of them have a prayer.
My final predictions: Okay, place your bets. Here’s my predicted order of finish, which ought to be as good as that of any of the experts. Keep in mind two things: 1) this is not the order in which I favor the candidates, and 2) it’s probably better that it’s not, since the folks I vote for don’t tend to win.
Republicans:
- Huckabee
- Romney
- Paul
- McCain
- Thompson
- Giuliani
- Hunter
Democrats:
- Obama
- Clinton
- Edwards
- Richardson
- Biden
- Kucinich
- Dodd
- Gravel
See you tomorrow!
Topics: Editorial |