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2008 Iowa Caucus Results and Analysis
By Bill | January 7, 2008 | Email This Post
All, right, the results have been in for days, and I’ve been lax in blogging. Here’s the actual order of finish:
Democrats:
- Barack Obama - 38%
- John Edwards - 29.8%
- Hillary Clinton - 29.5%
- Bill Richardson - 2%
- Joe Biden - 0.9%
- Uncommitted - 0.1%
- Chris Dodd - 0.02%
Republicans:
- Mike Hucabee - 34.4%
- Mitt Romney - 25.4%
- Fred Thompson - 13.4%
- John McCain - 13.2%
- Ron Paul - 9.7%
- Rudy Giuliani - 3.5%
- Duncan Hunter - 0.4%
There they are. About 350,000 people participated in the caucus, and as a result the rest of America has now been told who they should and should not treat as a legitimate candidate for President. Joe Biden has dropped out, as has Chris Dodd - you’ve got to feel for Dodd, who spent a year working hard and finished distantly behind “Uncommitted.”
I didn’t fare too badly with my predictions; I correctly picked Huckabee and Obama as the Republican and Democratic winners respectively. On the Democratic side I had Clinton and Edwards switched, but I don’t feel like that was a terrible miss because of the narrowness of Edward’s victory (29.8% to 29.5%.) Following them, I correctly picked the bottom of the pack, as far as the Biden/Dodd finish was concerned. The Republican results proved a bit trickier; I had Romney correctly picked as finished second, but gave far too much credit to Ron Paul who I had figured for third place rather than fifth. I also switched McCain and Thompson, but again, the lead there (13.4% to 13.2%) was so small I view it as pretty much even.
So, what is the fallout for the remaining candidates? My thoughts:
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton: this was a major blow to Ms. Clinton, both personally and politically, make no doubt about it. She’s not out of it by a large margin, but she suddenly must stop trying to paint herself as he best candidate to beat the Republicans and just worry about being the best Democrat. The candidacy of her primary competition, namely Barack Obama, has been legitimized in many people’s eyes. Another interesting result was that it turns out that Clinton is almost nobody’s second choice; if she’s first on a voter’s list that voter will vote for her, but if she’s not first the voter won’t even consider casting a ballot her way. The likability problem rears its ugly head again.
Edwards: Edwards’ second place finish was the surprise of the night for me. I had him pegged a zombie, someone who’s chances died long ago but who refused to lie down. Iowa proved he does have some life left in him. A more cynical friend of mine reacted to my surprise thusly: “Are you kidding? He’s the only Democratic white male with a chance to win. Of course he got a lot of votes.” I hope Iowa voters are a little more enlightened than she gives them credit for, but it remains to be seen if his finish is an anomaly or a resurgence.
Barack Obama: Obama was on top of the world as he gave his speech the night of the caucus, and he should have been. He came from third (or worse, in some polls) to a commanding finish against an extremely well known, well organized, well financed opponent in Hillary Clinton. He proved he can win on a national stage, which was one of the big questions surrounding him until now. I read one story about a black voter who had not planned to vote for Barak because he didn’t think America was ready to elect a black person and didn’t want to waste his vote; post-Iowa (97% white Iowa, I might add) he has now decided to support Obama. I think he’s moved solidly into the front runner spot, and I think the momentum will carry well into New Hampshire.
Richardson: What can you say about Richardson? His candidacy’s no joke, but neither is it a winner.
Kucinich: Didn’t show up in the Iowa caucus, but he did make it into the news to ask his supporters to endorse Barack Obama if Dennis was ineligible to receive votes. I think that pretty much indicates the direction his campaign is headed.
Republicans:
Rudy Giuliani: His poor Iowa showing means nothing at all. He’s aiming for the high-value state primaries in a few weeks.
Mike Huckabee: Huckabee’s finish even more dramatic than was Obama’s. He wasn’t even a first tier candidate a few months ago, much less the outright winner. Credit goes to Huckabee’s evangelical army, of course, but also to the Mike himself, for having - by far - the best presentation skills and most likable personality of any candidate in either party. New Hampshire will likely knock him down a few pegs, his support isn’t nearly a strong there, but he’s made himself a serious player for the nomination.
John McCain: fourth, and nearly third, is actually quite a good finish in Iowa for McCain. He was close to writing off the state not so long ago, and many predicted his campaign was on the rocks. Clearly not, and the havoc Huckabee’s victory wreaked on the Romney camp combined with a strong New Hampshire finish could be just what McCain needs to kick his candidacy into high gear.
Ron Paul: I missed badly on Paul, thinking he would have support well into the double digits. My suspicion at the moment is that his support elsewhere is at the Iowa level or even slightly less, but that’s tentative. New Hampshire’s got an independent streak running through it, I’d like to see where he finishes there before calling it.
Mitt Romney: Iowa was a disaster for Romney. He spent a fortune on ads, resorting to attacks on Huckabee near the end, and ended up being soundly trounced. Maybe the ads backfired? Possibly. I read one analysis that claimed that what we saw in Iowa between Romney and Huckabee was evangelical rejection of Romney’s Mormonism; I don’t buy that at all. I think the answer is much simpler: people don’t trust Romney.
Fred Thompson: Fred did well for a candidate that disappears frequently. I think he’ll have to raise the energy level quite a bit to have a serious chance in future primaries.
On to New Hampshire!
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