Predicting New Hampshire - the 2008 Primary | Only A Bill

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Predicting New Hampshire - the 2008 Primary

By Bill | January 7, 2008 | Email This Post

The Iowa caucuses and a couple of ensuing debates are in the bag, and we’re off to New Hampshire tomorrow to see what they have to say about the leader of the world. New Hampshire is a very different place than Iowa, and some results will be decidedly different… and some not so different. First, some brief thoughts, and then my predictions below:

Republicans:

The Republican race is the more interesting of the two. There are a lot of story lines: The relative scarcity of Huckabee’s evangelical consistency in the state, Romney’s eroding support in the face of his Iowa loss and his attacks on McCain, McCain’s best hope for catapulting himself into the forefont… it’s all here.

Rudy Giuliani: Much like he was in Iowa, Rudy isn’t terribly concerned with his results in New Hampshire. He figures to do better here than in the preceding caucus, but won’t come close to winning and isn’t expending a lot of energy trying. His sights are on the high value primaries just around the corner. Still, after tomorrow, he needs to start picking up speed, and a respectable showing would do nothing but help.

Mike Huckabee: Won’t win tomorrow, and he knows it. He’s saying the right things, but he’ll counter the outcome with his Iowa finish, still fresh on everyone’s mind. That will be enough to sustain him for now.

John McCain: New Hampshire is it for him. Win here, and you go on with reasonable prospects. Lose here, and it’s over. Luckily for McCain, the Granite State is fertile ground for his particular combination of political maverick and old warhorse.

Ron Paul: Paul’s support will be a major subplot tomorrow… not in terms of the outcome of the primary, but in whether or not he will continue to have a voice in the election. Not that his supporters will quit; they won’t. But a poor showing will only serve to leave Dr. Paul further marginalized, fairly or not.

Mitt Romney: Iowa was a near catastrophe for Romney, and it took him a while to regain his composure. He still appeared flustered in the ABC debate that followed several nights later, but had pulled it together enough to win on Fox News the following night (in my assessment.) Will it be enough? Romney could possibly have used an Iowa victory to help carry New Hampshire; now things look much more iffy. Reports are that Romney’s own internal polls say the state is too close to call.

Fred Thompson: Thompson’s out of it in New Hampshire. It remains to be seen if he wants to be in it anywhere else, either. If so, he needs to make a move, and soon.

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton: Clinton is stinging badly from her showing in Iowa. It will get better in New Hampshire, but won’t be cured. A loss here doesn’t put her out of it - she’s far too well organized and financed for that - but it puts her in an uphill battle she definitely doesn’t want. A win, on the other hand, makes it an even race again.

John Edwards: Has life after his second-place finish in Iowa. New Hampshire won’t be as kind to him, but it won’t finish him, either, with the southern primaries right around the corner.

Dennis Kucinich: Will not be a factor in New Hampshire. There’s no nice way to say it.

Barak Obama: The stakes for Obama are huge in New Hampshire. A win reaffirms his position as the new Democratic frontrunner. A convincing win does that as well as throwing the Clinton campaign into turmoil. A loss casts doubt on all that the Iowa caucus told us about him.

Bill Richardson: Will not be a factor in New Hampshire. He’s aiming for a VP spot at best at the moment, though I’m not sure he has enough appeal to make him an attractive running mate.

Okay, enough of that. The McCain/Romney race promises to be close, and the Huckabee/Giuliani/Paul results may be very close. But I will not be so timid as to fail in my duty to give you, the dear reader, my fearless predictions. (New Hampshire’s motto is “Live Free or Die!” after all.)

Republican Prediction: